Schrag: Why the Marriage Exclusion Act May be Defeated in November in California

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Peter Schrag

Among the many Democrats applauding the California Supreme Court's May 15 decision striking down the state's barriers to same-sex marriage, there must have been more than a little anxiety. Among conservatives condemning it, there had to be just a bit of unarticulated joy.

Both for the same obvious reason: the possibility, as after a similar decision in Massachusetts in 2004, that it would re-energize religious-right support for a dispirited Republican Party that has been at the short end of virtually every major national issue in recent years. The decision, one Democrat said, would have been better-timed in 2009.

Ironically, it also loads some GOP hopes on the backs of Latino voters, many of whom tend to be conservative on social issues such as abortion and gay rights. The paradox can't be lost on the most vehement of the immigration restrictionists.

In addition, of course, there's the near certainty that the "California Marriage Protection Act," an initiative that would probably overturn the court's decision, will be on the November ballot.

Nonetheless, 2008 may not be 2004, even on the issue of gay marriage.

The most recent poll data from PPIC, the Public Policy Institute of California, shows that opposition to gay marriage among Californians has weakened from the 61 percent who supported Proposition 22, the initiative in 2000 that decreed the gay marriage ban, to roughly 49 percent last year. A Los Angeles Times poll last week showed 51 percent supporting a gay marriage ban.

There were also indications, according to PPIC President Mark Baldassare, that voters seemed prepared to respond to further changes of climate toward acceptance of gay marriage. The court's decision this month is clearly such a sign.

There's thus a fair chance that the "Marriage Protection Act" – newspeak for "marriage exclusion act" – might be defeated.

As the court said, "The exclusion of same-sex couples from the designation of marriage clearly is not necessary in order to afford full protection to all of the rights and benefits that currently are enjoyed by married opposite-sex couples."

Even coming from California, which once led the parade of ballot measures prohibiting gay marriage, defeat of the November initiative would send a signal louder than any court decision.