More details on Field's marriage poll

by Brian Leubitz [courtesy of Calitics - Front Page]

Field has now released more data on their marriage poll, and thanks to the generosity of the good folks at the SacBee's Capitol Alert, you now have access to a lot of data. From the main release, in addition to the numbers mentioned earlier, where 51% of californians approve of gay marriage, we get some other high level stuff:

These findings compare with the results of six previous Field Polls taken over the past three decades in which those supporting same-sex marriage were in the minority.  For example, thirty-one years ago in 1977, more than twice as many Californians disapproved as approved allowing of same-sex marriages (59% to 28%).  Over the years opposition for having regular marriage laws apply to gay and lesbian couples has decreased steadily to where a minority of voters now holds this position.

In other words, the trend is clear to see. Whether it's just the inevitable drift towards equality that occurs as younger, more equality-minded voters become a more powerful voting bloc, or whether this was the result of the marriage decision, the results are still there. And as dday points out (in the top Google News Story in the US section) in a guest post at Kevin Drum's place, Mark DiCamillo, Field's lead pollster these days, thinks that this is likely a combination of the two:

DiCamillo said the recent shift may reflect both the presence of newer voters and a reaction to the state high court ruling.

"We had this historic ruling of the state Supreme Court, and people may have been persuaded," DiCamillo said. "We do see a shift. It looks like something happened to affect opinion."

Something did happen. It's called a courageous court standing up for what's right, legally and morally. And it is the future bearing down upon the foes of equality. As mentioned yesterday, it's currently going down 54%No to 40% Yes.  Them's real bad starting numbers for a proposition. Of course, the LA Times Poll had those numbers basically flipped. Much of this depended on the wording of the question, even Field's polls showed about a 3 point swing for from no to yes when the question was phrased in different ways.  But the LA Times Poll can only be so much comfort, as it also showed widespread support for gay marriage, in principle.

Either way, this will be a pricey campaign, as Capitol Weekly profiles today. They estimate that $30 million will be spent.  I estimate higher. This is the clash. This is the last stand for inequality. Whe we defeat it, which we will do through hard work, superior argument, and lots of money, James Dobson and crew will be looking down the wrong end of a steamroller named equality.

Over the flip for some more on the splits.

There are a number of interesting points to be made on the crosstabs available on SacBee's Capitol Alert, but none is more important than the age splits: the only age group to approve of the proposed constitutional amendment are voters 65 and over. It's close on 40-49, but the No's still lead. 18-29 year olds are opposed at about a 60% clip.  Whether it happens this year or it happens in 5 years, the fact is that marriage equality will happen.  My bet is for this year in California, followed in a few years by the same for the nation.

Of course there were geographical splits, with the coast at 55-37 approval at gay marriage and inland at 40-52. But, importantly, likely voters support marriage equality 51.6-41.2.

These are very good numbers for marriage equality, but this is going to be an expensive race. Money and time will be at a premium. This is just one more opportunity for California progressives to show their dedication to equality.