California Majority Report's 2010 Democratic Gubernatorial Race Rankings

[courtesy of The California Majority Report]

So now that the pesky June primary is behind us, the real positioning for the 2010 gubernatorial race is officially underway.

The November 2008 election marks the official beginning of the end of the accidental Schwarzenegger governorship. Yet some of the prospective Democrats and Republicans already appear to be revving up their campaign engines for two years of marathon campaigning that will be required to clinch the gubernatorial nominations of their parties.

Nearly all of the leading contenders strutted their stuff at the California Democratic Party's recent jamboree in San Jose. While Attorney General Jerry Brown teased the attendees about his intentions, his all-but-announced entry in the race doesn't seem to be cooling the talk of alternatives. It's safe to say he won't have a clean shot at the Democratic nomination.

Meanwhile in Republican circles, ex-HP head honcho Carly Fiorina and ex-eBay president Meg Whitman are being talked about as potential rivals to the uninspiring Insurance Commissioner, Steve Poizner. The ultra-conservative wing of the GOP doesn't appear to have a horse in the race yet either, but that's only a matter of time.
So here's an updated look at the crowded Democratic field.

1. Attorney General Jerry Brown (Last ranking: 1) -- Brown keeps a low profile as AG. But he continues to put feathers in his electoral cap nonetheless. Brown stifled attempts by conservative groups to stay the Supreme Court's gay marriage decision, winning him kudos among progressives that dominate a Democratic primary. Insiders insist that Brown's name ID alone will carry him to victory, particularly among seniors. But there's also a growing sense among the new generation of Democrats that Brown might be yesterday's news. Keep your eye on turnout among young voters in the November elections; if there's a surge, Brown will have a contest on his hands. The AG also is lacking in the money department, with less than $1 million in his account. That's troubling to some Democrats who fear he would be weaponless against any of the multi-millionaire Republicans expected to be on the other side of the ballot in the general election. Nonetheless, Brown is the 600 lbs. guerrilla in the race. Conventional wisdom says that if he's in, he's the heavy favorite for the nomination. But ask Hillary how much you can count on that these days.

2. Mayor Gavin Newsom (Last ranking: 2) -- Newsom is riding the wave from the gay marriage ruling. But he knows it will take more than that to win the nomination. That's why Newsom is wracking up an impressive and unabashed progressive record in San Francisco, yet keeping his friends in the business community. Look for Newsom's environmental and health care initiatives to bear fruit in the coming year so he can build a true record of accomplishment. That won't be easy. The nagging uber-left in San Francisco always seems to be poking him over one issue or another; yet looking somewhat centrist (for San Francisco) is not necessarily a bad thing if Newsom makes a run for the Governorship. Newsom's personal issues seem like a bygone memory too, with his upcoming nuptials likely to put them to rest for once and for all. One nagging question is how he'll play in the Central Valley, where "San Francisco liberal" labels won't help. But his weakness there could be offset by inroads among recent immigrants in the Asian and Latino communities in big cities (such as Newsom's recent moves making San Francisco a sanctuary city for undocumented workers). Newsom has a long history with Brown and his family. But as his recent impressive performance at the Sacramento Press Club proved, Newsom would be an interesting foil if he took the AG on.

Image courtesy FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog.