California Field Poll Shows Voters Favor Same-Sex Marriage and Will Defeat November Ballot Measure to Overturn State Supreme Cou

[courtesy of California Progress Report]

By Frank D. Russo

The California Field Poll, long considered the gold standard of state polls, has just released a survey of 1052 California voters that shows the ground has shifted on same sex marriage and by a large margin they support same-sex marriage and will defeat a measure that looks likely to qualify for the November ballot. The results are unmistakable as Field asked a number of questions in a number of different ways over a ten day period ending Monday.

By a margin of 51% to 42% California voters support allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry. Split into a random subsample, by a 54% to 40% margin, voters oppose the idea of changing the California State Constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman, thereby barring marriage between gay and lesbian couples. Another subsample, by a 51% to 43% margin, would vote against a November ballot initiative defining marriage as between a man and a woman.

Field has been polling on this subject for the last 24 years, and these findings show that the trend noted previously has continued. This is the first time in their polling that a majority supports same sex marriage. As we have written about just last week and in an analysis in March of 2007, the pattern here is one of younger voters being far more accepting of marriage equality and as the years go by, replacing older and less tolerant voters. There also is a trend of increasing acceptance of same sex marriage even in older voters.

Looking at the breakdown, there are strong divisions between those on both sides of this issue by region, age, party registration, political ideology, and religion.

By large majorities allowing same-sex couples to marry is approved of by voters in Los Angeles County (55% to 38%), the San Francisco Bay Area (68% to 24%), and in other Northern California (60% to 33%). It loses in other Southern California 51% to 41% and in the Central Valley 55% to 38%. Those in the coastal area with 71% of the state’s voters support allowing same-sex marriage by a margin of 55% to 37% while the opposite is true in inland areas where it is not supported by 52% to 40%.

There is a direct and dramatic correlation with age. Voters between 18 and 29 years are supportive (63% to 25%), between the ages of 30 and 39 (58% to 34%), between 40 and 49% (51% to 42%) and it is statistically a tie with voters aged 50 to 64 years of age (47% to 46% in favor. The only group opposed are voters 65 and older who are 20% of those registered to vote and who are opposed by a margin of 55% to 36%.